The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s growth prospects downward, citing low crude oil production and severe flooding, among other challenges currently impacting the nation’s economy.
In its recently published World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF reported that “Nigeria’s growth prospects for 2024 have declined to 2.9% from 3.3%” as indicated in its previous report.
The organization attributed this downgrade primarily to the effects of rising inflation, flooding, and setbacks in oil production.
In contrast, the IMF projected that global economic growth for 2025 would remain unchanged at 3.2%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.1% from its earlier forecast in July 2024.
For Nigeria, the IMF’s recent GDP growth projection for 2025 indicates a 0.2% increase from its earlier estimate made in July of this year. However, the GDP growth forecast for 2024 remains at 2.9%, representing a downgrade compared to the previous projection.
Regarding inflation, the IMF anticipates that Nigeria’s inflation rate will stabilize at 25% in 2025 before decreasing to 14% by 2029.
Further analysis in the report highlighted two critical factors contributing to the downward revision: agricultural disruptions due to severe flooding and security and maintenance issues affecting oil production.
According to Jean-Marc Natal, the division chief in the IMF’s Research Department, these challenges were significant drivers of the revision.
